Week 1: Forex Analysis Sept 5 – 9, 2011

This is my first week after I made a new goal and reached a new milestone in my forex trading. The last forex analysis proved to be a success (for me). And I’ll be doing it again, writing it in this blog, so I can keep track on what strategy I will use for the coming week.

AUD/USD
Daily: Downtrend. There is a very clear reversal pinbar.
Weekly: A possible downtrend. Large pinbar favoring downtrend.
Monthly: Uptrend BUT this could be a pullback now or possible trend reversal.
Comments: Be wary trading for the long term because the weekly and monthly signals are not strong enough to risk big. Make downtrend trades (sell) on daily and be careful holding position for too long.

EUR/USD
Daily: Trending Downtrend. Reversal confirmed. Be careful of signal expressing uptrend.
Weekly: Downtrend. Very strong indication of downtrend forming.
Monthly: Strong indication of downtrend. Resistance at 1.40575, if this break, downtrend will be for the long term.
Comments: Get into downtrend trades. Take downtrend trades.

EUR/JPY
Daily: Downtrending. Lookout for reversal signal.
Weekly: A break on resistance. Downtrend confirmed.
Monthly: Downtrend going to resistance at 105.896. Once there. Be wary. But its all downtrend from here.
Comments: Take downtrend trades. Signal is very strong. Resistance at 105.896

EUR/CHF
Daily: Resistance at 1.12099. Large tail / pin bar signalling trades to take uptrend.
Weekly: Not sure, but downtrend. There’s a large reversal right after the pinbar for uptrend.
Monthly: Downtrend. But a very good signal for uptrend trades.
Comments: Its a very good signal to buy uptrend. But don’t hold the position longer than a week. Weekly is till not clear.

USD/CHF
Daily: Large pinbar telling uptrend. Says pullback is finished.
Weekly: Weekly is not clear as to where it wants to go.
Monthly: It is a good day to buy.
Comments: Like EUR/CHF. This is a good buying opportunity. Just be careful holding it for week-long.

Been Traveling – The Benefits of Being a Forex Trader

I’ve been traveling, climbing mountains, tasting different delicacies and meeting women. Right now, I’m trying to live the life that I image for myself. Though, not yet what I really imagine, I can see that I’ll eventually get there.

Traveling costs money. And while you travel, you don’t work. The best thing about being a forex trader is you can earn money just by having an internet connection on your phone. And while I was taking a picture on top of a mountain, I added a position on my trade and my capital now up 38% as we speak.

Oh and I also think the forum is a bad idea. I never thought it would take a lot of time for me to manage the spam. I still haven’t opened the forum for users yet bots and spams are already being submitted. I would remove the forum and the discussion may proceed here in the comments section.

Happy trading.

Forex Trading Starts Again

So where the hell have Forex Philippines (ForexPhil) been?

mountainEverywhere

Traveling, climbing mountains, enjoying nature. You can say that this is a month long vacation for me. The good thing is forex trading allows me to earn money while on the road. You just need an internet connection and a trusty laptop.

Actually, December and early January have low volume so its best to just enjoy the time off and return when January is almost done. Which is what I did. We’re going to start trading again from here on. You can still trade, but I just prefer to stay on the sidelines when its a year end.

beautiful_coveThe Membership

I appreciate the comments on the post about the membership. You guys are cool. Thanks also for the people who emailed me and expressed their interest. So for the people who commented and emailed me expressing their interest… Thank you!

The eBook

What ebook? I’m planning to make an ebook version of the Forex Trading Course. So that people can still learn to trade forex even offline. If you want to read it while riding the bus. Print it out and give it to a friend. But the ebook has more. I plan to put in the Ichimoku series which would be cool. So stay tuned!

Update

I went back to school to learn a “skill”. Loving every minute of it. If you want to be updated with the latest post about forex trading, you can enter you email below this page. I will let you know once the membership OR the ebook comes out!

EUR/AUD Best Trade Yet 650+ Pips

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Christmas is approaching and a gift of 650+ pips is better than any other gift I could receive this Christmas. Yes folks, its the largest profit I got since I started trading. And this is real money. More than 650+ pips. I’m pretty much confident now with my system and I can already see my goal not that far away.

You can see when I entered the trade indicated by a yellow arrow sign indicating a “short” trade.

Lesson learned. I pretty much stumbled my way and doubted myself if I even have to pursue trading. I did lost a couple of money and thinking that the money lost is not really lost and just an educational expense much like a school tuition. I did think of giving up because of consistent losing trades. But there have been a lot of times in my life that when I was about to give up, that’s the time where you are about to succeed. This is a small success for me and a validation of my efforts and persistence to learn and study different systems and to figure out what kind of system is the right one for my personality.

If you’re still struggling. Don’t give up. Lose only the money you can afford to lose. Don’t borrow money expecting to become millionaire. If you’re smart, you don’t need to borrow money. Don’t give up. Continue reading. You’ll get the hang of it. And most importantly, subscribe to my feed if you would like to be updated of what trades I take.

Later pips. And Merry Christmas to all! :)

I Reached My Goal

A few months ago, I posted about clearing my losses incurred throught a whole year of learning forex. This time, I finally reached my goal when I started this blog. My goal to reach $5,000 net profit in a month has been reached and in fact, its almost twice as that. :-)

I am writing this 4am in the morning because I can not sleep because of excitement. I’ll be setting a new goal and I will post it in a while.

Now, looking back. The most important thing that affected my trading are the books that i read. Most of the time, I read online blogs of other traders. it have proved to be counter productive as i learned to copy their trade, even the bad ones. Doing that you never really know how to trade. you are just copying.

Because of this i want to know how the mind of a good trader works. i bought the book market wizards and its one of the best books i have ever read in trading. they dont contain strategies but psychology. also theres an anime i really like its about taking risks and gamblin

5 Steps of Becoming a Forex Trader

Its funny because its true. Even though this article has been written by another trader, it hits the nail right as to the steps and my experiences as well. And it highlights what are the most important thing in trading currency.

Step One: Unconscious Incompetence. 

This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. you know that its a good way of making money because you’ve heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy – after all, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down – what’s the big secret to that then – let’s get cracking!

Unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven’t got the first clue about what you’re trying to do. You take lots of trades and lots of risks. When you enter a trade it turns against you so you reverse and it turns again… and again, and again.

You may have initial success, and that’s even worse – because it tells your brain that this really is simple and you start to risk more money.

You try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you’ll get away with it but more often than not you will come away scathed and bruised You are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading.

This step can last for a week or two of trading but the market is usually swift and you move onto the next stage.

Step Two – Conscious Incompetence

Step two is where you realize that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realize that you are an incompetent trader – you don’t have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit.

You now set about buying systems and e-books galore, read websites based everywhere from USA to the Ukraine. and begin your search for the holy grail. During this time you will be a system nomad – you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. Every time you come upon a new indicator you’ll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference.

You will test out automated systems on Metatrader, you’ll play with moving averages, Fibonacci lines, support & resistance, Pivots, Fractals, Divergence, DMI, ADX, and a hundred other things all in the vein hope that your ‘magic system’ starts today. You’ll be a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and you’ll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right.

You’ll go into the live chat room and see other traders making pips and you want to know why it’s not you – you’ll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You’ll then reach the point where you think all the ones who are calling pips after pips are liars – they can’t be making that amount because you’ve studied and you don’t make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. But they’re in there day after day and their account just grows whilst yours falls.

You will be like a teenager – the traders that make money will freely give you advice but you’re stubborn and think that you know best – you take no notice and overtrade your account even though everyone says you are mad to – but you know better. You’ll consider following the calls that others make but even then it won’t work so you try paying for signals from someone else – they don’t work for you either.

You might even approach a ‘guru’ like So or someone on a chat board who promises to make you into a trader(usually for a fee of course). Whether the guru is good or not you won’t win because there is no replacement for screen time and you still think you know best.

This step can last ages and ages – in fact in reality talking with other traders as well as personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year and more nearer 3 years. This is also the step when you are most likely to give up through sheer frustration.

Around 60% of new traders die out in the first 3 months – they give up and this is good – think about it – if trading was easy we would all be millionaires. another 20% keep going for a year and then in desperation take risks guaranteed to blow their account which of course it does.

What may surprise you is that of the remaining 20% all of them will last around 3 years – and they will think they are safe in the water – but even at 3 years only a further 5-10% will continue and go on to actually make money consistently.

By the way – they are real figures, not just some I’ve picked out of my head – so when you get to 3 years in the game don’t think its plain sailing from there.

Iv had many people argue with me about these timescales – funny enough none of them have been trading for more than 3 years – if you think you know better then ask on a board for someone who’s been trading 5 years and ask them how long it takes to become fully 100% proficient. Sure i guess there will be exceptions to the rule – but i haven’t met any yet.

Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You’ve probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times but now its in your blood

One day – in a split second moment you will enter stage 3.

Step 3 – The Eureka Moment 

Towards the end of stage two you begin to realize that it’s not the system that is making the difference. You realize that its actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment.

The eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realize that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 minutes.

Because of this revelation you stop taking any notice of what anyone thinks – what this news item will do, and what that event will do to the markets. You become an individual with your own method of trading

You start to work just one system that you mold to your own way of trading, you’re starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold.

You start to take every trade that your ‘edge’ shows has a good probability of winning with. When the trade turns bad you don’t get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn’t possibly predict it isn’t your fault – as soon as you realize that the trade is bad you close it . The next trade or the one after it or the one after that will have higher odds of success because you know your system works.

You stop looking at trading results from a trade-to-trade perspective and start to look at weekly figures knowing that one bad trade does not a poor system make.

You have realized in an instant that the trading game is about one thing – consistency of your ‘edge’ and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know the probabilities stack in your favor.

You learn about proper money management and leverage – risk of account etc etc – and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile. You weren’t ready then, but you are now. The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the market.

Step 4 – Conscious Competence

You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it loses and when you’re on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account

You are now at a point where you break even most of the time – day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 pips and weeks where you lose 100 pips – generally you are breaking even and not losing money. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders as you chat the day away. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently.

You’ll start the day on a 20 pip win, take a 35 pip loss and have no feelings that you’ve given those pips back because you know that it will come back again. You will now begin to make consistent pips week in and week out 25 pips one week, 50 the next and so on.

This lasts about 6 months

Step Five – Unconscious Competence

Now we’re cooking – just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade – you do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 200 pips in a day doesn’t make you any more excited that getting 1 pip.

You see the newbie’s in the forum shouting ‘go dollar go’ as if they are urging on a horse to win in the grand national and you see yourself – but many years ago now.

This is trading utopia – you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account.

You’re a star in the trading chat room and people listen to what you say. You recognize yourself in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile because they’re teenagers – some of them will get to where you are – some will do it fast and others will be slower – literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will.

Trading is no longer exciting – in fact it’s probably boring you to bits – like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job – it gets boring – you’re doing your job and that’s that.

Finally you grow out of the chat rooms and find a few choice people who you converse with about the markets without being influenced at all.

All the time you are honing your methods to extract the maximum profit from the market without increasing risk. Your method of trading doesn’t change – it just gets better – you now have what women call ‘intuition’

You can now say with your head held high “I’m a currency trader” but to be honest you don’t even bother telling anyone – it’s a job like any other.

I hope you’ve enjoyed reading this journey into a traders mind and that hopefully you’ve identified with some points in here.

Remember that only 5% will actually make it – but the reason for that isn’t ability, its staying power and the ability to change your perceptions and paradigms as new information comes available.

The losers are those who wanted to ‘get rich quick’ but approached the market and within 6 months put on a pair of blinkers so they couldn’t see the obvious – a kind of “this is the way i see it and that’s that” scenario – refusing to assimilate new information that changes that perception.

I’m happy to tell you that the reason i started trading was because of the ‘get rich quick’ mindset. Just that now i see it as ‘get rich slow’

If you’re thinking about giving up i have one piece of advice for you.

Ask yourself the question “how many years would you go to college if you knew for a fact that there was a million dollars a year job at the end of it?

Take care and good trading to you all.

Making a Community

So what’s been cooking? During the past week, I’ve been thinking of creating a community for traders and investors to share their knowledge and ideas. And this one will be a different one from a while back that I made. I’m talking about the forum. This is a lot different because I’ve invested a lot of time and money in it.

I’d like to see Filipinos talk about money, trading, investing and business. I want the Philippines to be rich and thus have a lot of rich men. I apologize if I may have been slowing down on the posting, I’m just a one man act so I could easily be spread thin. But no worries, once I have finished all necessary preparations, I wish to invite all of you to this community and this blog will return to regular programming.

About my trade

Its doing great. I’ve made 20% profit from last week. Here’s my current trade as of this moment on EURUSD.

There’s also a new lesson on the trading course. Its about forex trading systems. Sort of like an introduction. Have a look and let me know what you all think.

Cheers,
ForexPhil

Frequently Asked Questions in Forex Trading

I have been receiving a lot of emails lately from people who are interested to start forex trading. I apologize if I can’t reply with your emails, I’ll just post it here in return so people can see.

1. Recommended Websites to Learn Forex Trading

The only recommended website I could point you to in learning forex trading would be babypips.com. All the basics and intermediate materials that you need to know are there.

2. What are the Systems Used in Forex Trading?

There are quite a lot of systems in forex trading and I can’t explain all of them. The best way to use a system is to know yourself. If you are a risk taker and restless, try day trading forex using candle sticks. If you are a steady investor, try fundamental analysis using macroeconomics. If you are in between, try swing trading. I can not stress this enough, know yourself and then pick your poison.

3. Where to Get These Systems?

These systems range from robots to pure strategy. Where else can you find them? Bookstores. Go over to amazon and search forex trading systems and you’ll find yourselves a lot to choose from. Also, finish babypips.com for an introduction to different kinds of systems and pick one you think you like best.

4. Is there a Short Course in Forex in the Philippines?

For what I know, forex trading in the Philippines is at a very infant stage. Just look at our stock market, not even 10% of the population invest in it. So don’t expect much for short courses in forex. I believe there are some companies out there that does this and some gurus teaching the basics. But then again, that’s what babypips is for.

5. What is the best way to learn forex trading?

I think the best way to learn in ANYTHING is just go out there and do it. Demo trading can only get you so far. Without real money on the line you can not feel anything. Emotion is part of forex trading that you want to master, demo trading won’t do that and only a live account can.

What Are Your Goals in Forex?

180+ Pips on AUD USD

180+ pips on AUD/USD

When people asks me what I do for a living and tell them I have a business called forex trading, people always jump out of joy and ask me to teach them how to do it. It seems that is rare for someone to encounter such a breed of people that you won’t be able to hide your joy and ask questions. It is a pleasure for me to teach. But it can quickly becomes a frustration when people don’t have the willingness to learn. Only the willingness to ask. There are a lot of forex tutorials, resources and beginner tools on the subject that its quite frustrating now to explain fibonacci, limit orders, SMA, margin and leverage to an average person. We all have those basic stuff online and for free. If you come across a forex trader in your life, do not scare him away by asking newbie questions. Educate yourself first so you can ask interesting question that would express your willingness to learn. You may build a good relationship with that person and might improve your trading.

In a business where your character will be tested, I think everyone should be willing to learn by themselves because after all, it is your money. First ask the question, what is your goal for trading forex. Is it to become a millionaire overnight? Is it to retire young? Or is it just a vehicle for you for wealth building?

Whatever your answer to this question ultimately lead to what kind of strategy you will utilize. Every person is different. And every person have a kind of threshold where he can take a loss and not quit. Everybody is different. So learn about yourself. And create your own strategy. Master the fundamentals and you’ll be able to learn faster. And most importantly, be patient and have self discipline.

I do have my personal goal in forex when I started out last year. I haven’t achieve this goal yet. But I’m seeing positive results now more than ever. And that’s because I never stopped learning.

Whatever your goals are in forex, I wish you good luck.