Forex Backtesting

Forex backtesting is the process of going through charts from previous years, weeks or days to confirm the effectivity of a system. Simply put, you look at past charts to know if your system worked well as you predicted or failed. Every new and experienced forex trader do backtesting because it allows the trader to gain knowledge and confidence on his system and make necessary tweaks and rule to find the system that works for them.

Forex Backtesting Software

Most forex companies will let you view at past charts or even download them, where you can mark (using pencil and paper) and trade by looking at one bar at a time (simulating a real trade session).

There are some software that will do this for you. One is forex tester. Well, I think, its the only back testing software out there. Either the forex brokerage company has a feature or not, you can either trade manually or demo trading. Demo trading can be long and tiresome. Using a back testing software, you can instantly test your strategy because you can control the time when each bar will appear.

Conclusion: Whatever method you take, always remember to test your strategy before trading live. Either by backtesting, paper trading or demo trading. You must gain full confidence on your trading system.

How to Get Out Of Losing Trades

Screen shot 2014-02-25 at 7.06.25 PMAs far as forex trading goes, every trading system has their own rules for entry and exit, their money management and risk and rewards. But system rules, entry and money management are the easiest part of the system. The hardest part of the system is the “exit” because its where you’ll make or lose money.

What’s even worse is if the position is a losing proposition. Clicking that exit button might seem like a Herculean task of discipline and strength. Most people breakdown at this point and fall into the abyss of self-denial, thinking that the market will eventually comes back and recuperate their losses. But the market never did come back and his trading account, vanished.

I’m here to tell you what I think about losing trades, how to ease the pain it brings, how to get out gracefully and how avoid it in the first place.

Avoid Losing Trades by Concentrating more on the Exit

When you see a trade, focus on the exit rather than the entry. A newbie forex trader will try to “imagine” patterns when they see an entry signal. And sometimes, deliberately try to convince themselves that the pattern is indeed 100% accurate. They become obsessed at proving themselves that they are right. You should do the opposite. You should always try to prove yourself wrong and always look for the exit rather than the entry.

As I quote Sun Tzu’s Art of War:

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win”.

Know beforehand that your exit will be profitable and you have won that trade even before you make it. As you make this approach, you’ll notice that you’ll have fewer and fewer trades. But the quality of those trades will certainly increase.

Immediately Close a Losing Trade and Move On

This is probably the hardest action to take for a losing trade. Accepting the fact that you’re wrong is a sign that you have matured as a trader. While newbies will try to hold on to the trade wishing that the market would bounce back. There are probably another school of thought when it comes to this strategy. The market does not go in a straight line and they wait for it to bounce back even for a little. That is perhaps true. But I would rather end it now than to hope that the market will come back for me. What if I’m wrong on that part as well? Being wrong twice in a single trade could be the worst feeling and it could harm your future trades.

Never Risk Too Much Money

All in all, it all goes down to the amount of money in a trade. Demo trading is fun because the money used is not real. And so, every losing trade in a demo account is nothing to you. But if real money is at stake, “shit hits the fan” too much too often. Risk only the amount of money you are comfortable with. You need to have a good money management strategy on top of your trading system. This is different for every people. That’s why we have a term risk appetite. Some people likes to risk high and some people don’t. I don’t personally like risking alot of money in a single trade. Well, I used to risk a lot, but I’ve changed.

Personally, the amount of money I risk in a single trade is 2%. Max. I don’t go over that. I have found that I’m very much comfortable losing that amount of money and so I don’t panic when I have losing trade. I just kill that losing trade and move on.

Whatever you do, losing trade is not a good feeling to have. But remember that forex trading is a business and should be treated as such.

Week 2: Forex Analysis Sept 12 to 16 and a New Toy

The past week has been a very good week. Did we make money? Hell yeah. I got the chance to ride the market movement of more than 800 pips on the EURCHF. And right on the spot, predicted its movement a week prior from the forex analysis week 1 post.


800 pips

My New Toy! iPad 2

That trade, riding its uber tall movement gave me the chance to reward myself with a new toy.

I bought an iPad 2 for myself to reward myself of a job well done. I haven’t got it yet and I’m still waiting for it to be delivered. I will post some pics when it arrive.

I tend to trade well watching tv and I made all the profits while lying in the couch trading in my mobile phone. But mobile trading made my eyes hurt because of very small letters. So I thought I would buy an iPad for a better mobile / flexible trading and at the same time, I can read books without having to clutter my desk with books I already finished reading.

Forex Analysis

EURUSD

It moved quite dramatically downtrend for daily. You may take profits now if you want to be on the safe side for daily trades, because it might pullback to test the resistance. We could see another downtrend for another week. It’s definitely a downtrend on monthly.

Get into downtrend trades. Its a good opportunity to go short.

EURJPY

Its a breakout downtrend on daily. Breakout downtrend on weekly. Still a downtrend on monthly.

Go short trades because its telling a very strong downtrend.

AUDUSD

Downtrend on daily for breaking the strong support at 1.05034. It is a good indication of an incoming downtrend on weekly. Monthly is still unsure. Might be a pullback.

Go SHORT. Its is downtrend for daily and weekly. But be careful holding the position for too long.

EURCHF

Seems like there is a resistance on 1.21822 and it can’t go on further. It might also be a sign for a pullback because the market have moved quite dramatically on daily. On weekly, it is now an uptrend. We are still not sure if it will pullback or not. Just be careful. Monthly is definitely an uptrend.

I would go long for the long term on EURCHF. Since monthly signal is telling us a great uptrend coming. But be careful going long on daily or weekly as we still don’t know if there will be a pullback or not. Enter at your own risk.

USDCHF

There is a breakout on daily. Even if EURCHF is directly proportional with USDCHF, this currency pair instead of pulling back, remained to go strong. There might be a window of opportunity here. Daily is in an uptrend. Weekly is definitely an uptrend. Monthly is uptrend.

I would go for uptrend trades on this currency.

Disclaimer

This trading journal is meant to be for educational purposes only. Please do not take these as trade recommendations and I am not responsible if ever you lose money in the forex market.

Week 32: +20% This Week Great EUR/USD Trade

The main highlight of last week is the trade for EURUSD and capital is now up 20%. Looking at the charts, I think there is something cooking for EUR/CHF.

Remember our analysis on the EUR/CHF that its cooking to go up? Well, it did went up but it seems that many are still shorting the pair. The interesting thing here is that the Swiss government expressed their willingness to intervene should the pair reach around 1.2000. This is last year’s tipping point where exporters are expressing their grief for high exchange rates and businesses are being affected.

Now that the pair is hovering at this level ~1.2000. It might be a great idea to go long and build up the position as you go.

The price action tells the same story, “I want to go up!”.

Keep in mind that before a trend reverses, there might be a consolidation… This move up that we are anticipating, may be preceded by consolidation first before it moves up, or it might continue to go down some more before it moves up. Keep your stop losses tight and be flexible enough to know if you are wrong. I have been wrong a couple of times, so same thing goes here… Trade at your own risk. :)

EURUSD +1,687 Pips

Screen shot 2013-10-24 at 11.06.09 AM

Entering a trade inside a kumo, betting that the cloud won’t break. This is what I think while I opened the trade in EURUSD. It has proven to be an effective strategy. As you know, a flat line in a kumo cloud means a strong resistance. While I also drew my own resistance lines, Ichimoku confirmed that it indeed has a high probability that it will not break. So I bet more. The resistance at 1.3500 is a dead giveaway for me. Look at the candlesticks lining up in a straight line. :) That’s another opportunity to add more position from the profit I had on the first to trades near 1.33 and 1.32.

Total pips gained so far +1,687

Screen shot 2013-10-24 at 11.05.56 AMHappy trading.

 

Forex Trading Reward: Macbook

I bought a new computer from the profits I made on this trade. The reason behind that is because I’ve been traveling a lot lately. And my phone just won’t cut it at times. I can’t look at the charts in detail. And also, I’ve been eyeing this laptop for a long time and thought of having it as a reward once I made a good trade.

I took some of the money and bought this laptop and all the remaining gets reinvested. Its a great laptop. I love it!

Lesson Learned

Though I made profits from the last trade. I wasn’t quite happy. Because I was betting really big in a business of probabilities. And I know that in time, the probabilities might hit me. I will try to lessen the risk now and be content with making money consistently in a safer way than to bet big and hard and have big returns but have big drawdowns.

What’s your reward for yourself this coming christmas?

I Suck At Writing, Insurance and Girls

I just realized that I really suck at writing. It is hard work for me to write the forex trading courses. I wish I could have made it more enjoyable. That is why I’m ordering some books right now about writing. I really want to share the love of forex trading and I think that my inability to express that love into writing would only limit my reach to more people.

Actually, I’m buying books because a girl rejected me. This fine woman, a manager from a popular coffee chain, I dated for a while just called it quits. She doesn’t know I have a blog so I guess that’s ok venting it out here. I’m buying books so I can forget about the whole thing. I feel devastated…

On the other hand, there seems to be a lot of insurance salesmen. A guy already phoned me selling insurance. He might have thought that I will commit suicide after being heart broken.

This post is not related in anyway with forex trading. But a screenshot of my trade looks just fine. It looks like a blood dripping right? Kinda explain how I feel.

What Makes Forex Trading Different?

If you’ve been following my forex forecast and decided to take the trade with me, we are now at a +120pip profit at the time of this writing. Pretty good profit margin. But it is not what we’re going to talk about today.

While I was lying in bed last night. I thought to myself. All indicators and all strategies are there on the internet, in books and in mentors. Why is it that there are only few people who are successful in forex trading. In the Philippines, I have not seen or met someone who is successful enough to get media attention. Is it really with the strategies or indicators that will make a forex trader successful?

While I was reading a book about different kinds of forex traders. I noticed that most of them are doctors, retired military men or athletes. People who are tough mentally or knows psychology. Maybe the thing about forex trading is its all in the mind more than it is with the indicators.

Also, nobody knows what will be the future of the charts or when a trend will begin or end. Nobody really knows when a reversal will occur or a support and resistance will break or bounce. Nobody really knows. We only have indicators to tell us options of what may happen its still us that have to decide and take risks.

So, the bottom line is… Its about risks. Risk management and money management. You only have to have a decent strategy that you’re confident about and apply money management principle to it.

Take risks. We know from the start that forex trading is risky. Before we even know how the market moves. We know that forex is risky. So we have to be prepared to take risks. That aside, manage the risk with money management.

These are my thoughts about forex trading. You may voice out your opinion in the comments section below.

Forex Trading EUR USD March 12

This is done in the daily charts. I saw bar A which is a nice inside bar. But the bars next to to Bar A is a trading range. So I wait for a bullish bar to enter.

Bar B is a doji which means bears and bulls are almost equal. But have a potential as a signal to indicate a bullish trend. So I try and wait if the next bar is bull to enter the trade. It proved to be a bull and closed just above the inside bar’s range. So I entered long depicted in the arrow.

As of now, its +63 pips.

picture-2