Welcome to Forex Philippines

This is forex philippines. I’ll be blogging about my forex trading experience on this site. I’m still new at trading with forex and still use demo account to practice how to trade. So you can expect many many mess up and success tradings here. And also some thoughts about a particular trade. I’ll also be putting some things that I learn. Things I stumble on the internet and things learned from forex trading experts.

About me, you can call me Jeff I’m 25 years old (as of this writing) and I’m a businessman. I’m trying to learn forex to have more diversification.

If you have any questions do not hesitate to ask. We are all here to learn and succeed in forex trading.

UPDATE: I am now trading live since 2011.

Waiting For More Price Action Before Entering the Forex Trade

We have some good news and bad news. The bad news is, our analysis did not reach our expected top. And a sudden reversal happened in EURUSD daily. We don’t need to be worried though as it is a retracement testing the support. If support holds, it may continue its upward trend for one last time to hit our top. The good news is, this is not the big trend that we are waiting for and so, we can rest assure that we are not being left by the trend yet.

I’m still waiting for the top to go short. There’s also another option to go long on the bottom.

Free Forex Trading Course

As you might have noticed, I removed the forum and replaced it with something better. Forex Philippines is now offering free forex trading courses, brought to you by yours truly. Its a course with a personal touch. Its a course that gives more of an insight on how I managed to get started on trading forex. Lessons 1 and 2 are out now so be sure to check the site out for more lessons to come.

I want to touch more lives by teaching what I learned in forex so I made an online book. Please support and share the page or comment if you have any questions. Your comments keeps me motivated. And all this for free! Or if you feel like treating me for a coffee, that’s fine as well.

Knowing How Long is The Trading Trend

Ahhh… After playing with different timeframes. I pretty much got the idea at what timeframe I’m comfortable with. The idea is this, it should match your personality. If you’re a full time forex trader who don’t want to miss every good trade that may come by, be a day trader that trades smaller timeframes (5 minute charts to 1 hr ). If you’re a more long term and just wants to take a time off after placing a trade consider becoming a swing trader (days to weeks).

I say this because I kinda mess up the timing of entry and exit. I hold positions longer even though im in the 5 minute chart, resulting in losses. I tend to close position on a winning trade too early on a longer chart (days) and the result, I don’t earn much money as I have to.

So knowing the right mix would give you the idea how long should you hold trades.

Jun 29 2011 – Trading with Reversal Pinbar

As you all know. The way I trade currency is using technical analysis. I know that there are many people out there that has been using fundamental analysis to decide on their trade. And this is what works for me and allow me to share some bit of information about technical analysis that might help you improve your trading.

Please see the image below.

I would like to introduce you to a reversal pinbar called engulfing pattern. It is a bar that “Engulfs” the previous bar indicating the end of the trend.

As you can see, I took the trade once I saw the engulfing bar pattern and placed my stop loss above the previous high.

How to Get Out Of Losing Trades

Screen shot 2014-02-25 at 7.06.25 PMAs far as forex trading goes, every trading system has their own rules for entry and exit, their money management and risk and rewards. But system rules, entry and money management are the easiest part of the system. The hardest part of the system is the “exit” because its where you’ll make or lose money.

What’s even worse is if the position is a losing proposition. Clicking that exit button might seem like a Herculean task of discipline and strength. Most people breakdown at this point and fall into the abyss of self-denial, thinking that the market will eventually comes back and recuperate their losses. But the market never did come back and his trading account, vanished.

I’m here to tell you what I think about losing trades, how to ease the pain it brings, how to get out gracefully and how avoid it in the first place.

Avoid Losing Trades by Concentrating more on the Exit

When you see a trade, focus on the exit rather than the entry. A newbie forex trader will try to “imagine” patterns when they see an entry signal. And sometimes, deliberately try to convince themselves that the pattern is indeed 100% accurate. They become obsessed at proving themselves that they are right. You should do the opposite. You should always try to prove yourself wrong and always look for the exit rather than the entry.

As I quote Sun Tzu’s Art of War:

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win”.

Know beforehand that your exit will be profitable and you have won that trade even before you make it. As you make this approach, you’ll notice that you’ll have fewer and fewer trades. But the quality of those trades will certainly increase.

Immediately Close a Losing Trade and Move On

This is probably the hardest action to take for a losing trade. Accepting the fact that you’re wrong is a sign that you have matured as a trader. While newbies will try to hold on to the trade wishing that the market would bounce back. There are probably another school of thought when it comes to this strategy. The market does not go in a straight line and they wait for it to bounce back even for a little. That is perhaps true. But I would rather end it now than to hope that the market will come back for me. What if I’m wrong on that part as well? Being wrong twice in a single trade could be the worst feeling and it could harm your future trades.

Never Risk Too Much Money

All in all, it all goes down to the amount of money in a trade. Demo trading is fun because the money used is not real. And so, every losing trade in a demo account is nothing to you. But if real money is at stake, “shit hits the fan” too much too often. Risk only the amount of money you are comfortable with. You need to have a good money management strategy on top of your trading system. This is different for every people. That’s why we have a term risk appetite. Some people likes to risk high and some people don’t. I don’t personally like risking alot of money in a single trade. Well, I used to risk a lot, but I’ve changed.

Personally, the amount of money I risk in a single trade is 2%. Max. I don’t go over that. I have found that I’m very much comfortable losing that amount of money and so I don’t panic when I have losing trade. I just kill that losing trade and move on.

Whatever you do, losing trade is not a good feeling to have. But remember that forex trading is a business and should be treated as such.

Week 9: Looking to Enter This Week

Our patience is paying off. Our prediction is steadily taking its course. We are looking to open a position next week. Hopefully, price will reach the red line, which I assume to be the top. Our stop loss, near that line.

We are still on our plan and still following that plan thus far. Remember: We only need to get 1 big trend to make money. But in order to make the most out of that trend, we must get into the top or the bottom of that trend. Get into the exact turnaround of the trend. So we have the maximum amount of profit possible. We risk as big as we can possibly get once we know that all our setups are right.

Forex Trading as Gambling vs Forex Trading as Odds and Probabilities

I admit that I have been guilty of the title Forex Trading Gambler. During my first few years and quite some of the time, I trade forex because of the adrenaline rush and the thought of easy money. I get excited on every high risk trade that turns out to be a winner. It was my high. I was addicted to the feeling. Like a gambler who doesn’t care about the risk, odds or the probabilities of winning or losing. He just wants to experience that same high that got him hooked.

As if I were a junkie.

Then comes the realization, I continue to lose and I kept increasing my trading size. Only to burn even faster. With that good feeling that you miss, you just want to trade more and more, larger and larger, only to experience the bottom faster. Trading this way will not work.

It is not about the feeling in trading. How much money you made or how much you lost should not be the basis of trading. The more I trade, the more I realize that. Money doesn’t matter in trading. For me, being right matters most.

Its all about the odds and probabilities. Its all about timed aggression and patience. A little bit of luck may help. But don’t depend entirely on luck. Because even though luck is involved, there is a reason why the final table have so many familiar faces.

It is a different kind of feeling that the thrill of winning big. Being right is better than breaking the bank. This is not a sprint, its a marathon. Trading larger size may give you great gains, but also great drawdown, and greater risk to go bankrupt. What we want is to make the right decisions each and every time.

The more I read about the stories of successful traders, the more I realize that trading is much like poker. Some people treat it as gambling, some treat it like a sport, a mental sport like chess. Some play poker just to have fun, feel the rush, some play poker as a profession, as a business. We should approach forex trading the same way. Its all about the odds and probabilities. Its all about timed aggression and patience. A little bit of luck may help. But don’t depend entirely on luck. Because even though luck is involved, there is a reason why the final table have so many familiar faces.

Happy trading!

+48% Gain From USDJPY

I closed my position on USDJPY with an increase in my war funds of 48%. Right now, I took an opposite position to the SHORT side.

Why did I took an opposite position? I think that 80.70 is a strong resistance. And there’s little risk if we took the short side (betting that the resistance will hold) than remaining on the LONG side (betting that the resistance will break). I think that the resistance is strong and may take a couple of tries before it breaks (or not). I just want to play it safe by betting on which side will most likely give us a greater return. And I think, this time, its on the Short side.

Forex Trading Small First Before You Go Big

People are greedy. That’s a fact. But its the emotion that keeps us wanting more and always wanting to have the things we want. Makes us think of ways on how to get it. Don’t fear greed. Make use of it. Master it.

Most newbie traders, me and my friend, talked about the profits in trading. One of us will argue that to have great profits you need to have large amounts of pips in a winning trade. Ok. Fair enough. More pips = more profits.

Think about this, you have $1M in your account as capital. And your target profit in terms of pips is in the 200+ pip range. Sounds like a lot money to be made when you get that 200+ pip. But think of the risk you will get and also the time before you get to profit. In forex trading, there are fluctuations, can you stay calm when your account displays -100pip because of its initial retracement? Can you still decide if the trend is against you or its just a retracement? Remember, earning that kind of pip will require you to hold the trade from 1 hr to 1 day. Can you handle the pressure?

I say, pip size doesn’t matter. How much you risk in each trade matters. Playing with small profit pips will reduce risk. And also, having a profit target that’s small will minimize risk. Smaller pips means, shorter time inside a trade which means lesser risk, less pressure from greed or fear.

Pip size doesn’t matter, volume does. Increase your volume once you got the thing going. Increase more to profit more, while still maintaining the same pip per trade profit. And always remember, don’t overtrade. Take a time out. Every businessman needs his vacation once in a while.

Good luck!