Forex Trading as Gambling vs Forex Trading as Odds and Probabilities

I admit that I have been guilty of the title Forex Trading Gambler. During my first few years and quite some of the time, I trade forex because of the adrenaline rush and the thought of easy money. I get excited on every high risk trade that turns out to be a winner. It was my high. I was addicted to the feeling. Like a gambler who doesn’t care about the risk, odds or the probabilities of winning or losing. He just wants to experience that same high that got him hooked.

As if I were a junkie.

Then comes the realization, I continue to lose and I kept increasing my trading size. Only to burn even faster. With that good feeling that you miss, you just want to trade more and more, larger and larger, only to experience the bottom faster. Trading this way will not work.

It is not about the feeling in trading. How much money you made or how much you lost should not be the basis of trading. The more I trade, the more I realize that. Money doesn’t matter in trading. For me, being right matters most.

Its all about the odds and probabilities. Its all about timed aggression and patience. A little bit of luck may help. But don’t depend entirely on luck. Because even though luck is involved, there is a reason why the final table have so many familiar faces.

It is a different kind of feeling that the thrill of winning big. Being right is better than breaking the bank. This is not a sprint, its a marathon. Trading larger size may give you great gains, but also great drawdown, and greater risk to go bankrupt. What we want is to make the right decisions each and every time.

The more I read about the stories of successful traders, the more I realize that trading is much like poker. Some people treat it as gambling, some treat it like a sport, a mental sport like chess. Some play poker just to have fun, feel the rush, some play poker as a profession, as a business. We should approach forex trading the same way. Its all about the odds and probabilities. Its all about timed aggression and patience. A little bit of luck may help. But don’t depend entirely on luck. Because even though luck is involved, there is a reason why the final table have so many familiar faces.

Happy trading!

Forex Trading Small First Before You Go Big

People are greedy. That’s a fact. But its the emotion that keeps us wanting more and always wanting to have the things we want. Makes us think of ways on how to get it. Don’t fear greed. Make use of it. Master it.

Most newbie traders, me and my friend, talked about the profits in trading. One of us will argue that to have great profits you need to have large amounts of pips in a winning trade. Ok. Fair enough. More pips = more profits.

Think about this, you have $1M in your account as capital. And your target profit in terms of pips is in the 200+ pip range. Sounds like a lot money to be made when you get that 200+ pip. But think of the risk you will get and also the time before you get to profit. In forex trading, there are fluctuations, can you stay calm when your account displays -100pip because of its initial retracement? Can you still decide if the trend is against you or its just a retracement? Remember, earning that kind of pip will require you to hold the trade from 1 hr to 1 day. Can you handle the pressure?

I say, pip size doesn’t matter. How much you risk in each trade matters. Playing with small profit pips will reduce risk. And also, having a profit target that’s small will minimize risk. Smaller pips means, shorter time inside a trade which means lesser risk, less pressure from greed or fear.

Pip size doesn’t matter, volume does. Increase your volume once you got the thing going. Increase more to profit more, while still maintaining the same pip per trade profit. And always remember, don’t overtrade. Take a time out. Every businessman needs his vacation once in a while.

Good luck!

+48% Gain From USDJPY

I closed my position on USDJPY with an increase in my war funds of 48%. Right now, I took an opposite position to the SHORT side.

Why did I took an opposite position? I think that 80.70 is a strong resistance. And there’s little risk if we took the short side (betting that the resistance will hold) than remaining on the LONG side (betting that the resistance will break). I think that the resistance is strong and may take a couple of tries before it breaks (or not). I just want to play it safe by betting on which side will most likely give us a greater return. And I think, this time, its on the Short side.

Never Trade on Mondays

I’ve been reading some beginner stuff about forex trading and one thing that caught my attention is that many experienced trader always advice not to trade on mondays. The reason behind this is because you want to know what will be the starting setup for the coming week so letting the first days alone is crucial. It also has the less volatility when it comes to pip movement.

I don’t know… Since I started trading, I’m never been more excited about mondays. When I was still in a full time job, I despise mondays! But now, I’m excited and I can’t even sleep sometimes.

What do you think? Do you trade mondays?

5 Mental Things You Need Before You Start Forex Trading

Job Security is an Illusion.

Many people want to be a forex trader. And I know a lot of people in my social circle who wants to be a trader. I even teach them how. Recommend them books, websites and strategy. But there seems to be people who is just damn scared to let go of their day job. Afraid to take the plunge. Afraid to be laughed at. Afraid to make something happen in their life.

They are just too contented by the way things are. Perhaps, too fucking contented… Safe, secure… “But I really want to be a millionaire trading forex”. Do you see what’s wrong there? There’s a lot of contradiction in that statement. Being a millionaire is NOT synonymous to being safe in a day job. Being a millionaire is synonymous to risking, having the balls to follow what you want in life and most importantly, its ignoring what other people may say to you. Be it “bat shit crazy for quitting a high paying job.”

Have The Balls to Follow Your Dreams

The hard working people that goes to the office everyday to work 9 hours a day. Be stuck at traffic, be soaking wet during the rainy seasons, are probably the most common. Talk to them and ask them if they want to have a business. 100% of the time they will answer something like this “I really want to have a business, but I don’t have any funds right now.” or “I want to have a business but I don’t know how or have no time”. Or whatever other reason they have. Its all wishy washy. I’ll do this after I do that then I pray to the flying spaghetti monster in the sky to let me win the lottery. Before they know it, they are 40 years old. Now, they have a different problem and a little different reason. “I’ll want to have a business but I’m not sure if I’m still young enough to learn all that.”

Hesitate and you will age. Run and you will die.

Ohh… How time flies…

Lose Your Ego

There’s nothing I enjoy more in watching other traders is their ability to talk about how confident they are in a market (stocks, bonds, commodities, forex). yet they can’t seem to accept the fact that they are wrong. And sometimes, which is more dangerous, they think they can predict where the market will go.

Forming a forum so you can exchange ideas (or persuade other traders) that your analysis is correct so you have a better confidence in your analysis. I don’t think that will do any good. Knowing first hand where your trade will go, before it even go there makes your mind closed. You are not open to the possibilities that your trade may reverse. Or it may give you a profit then reverse. The decision is based on ego that you are correct. And it will be harder for you to take a loss. And thus, you are fucked up inside. You can’t trade.

Think For Yourself

Does it matter if your friend is also LONG position on the same currency pair you are in? Does it matter if your technical trading mentor is SHORT on the EURUSD? Would you try to rationalize the idea that your LONG position on the EURUSD is wrong so you can join your mentor on the SHORT side?

This is the reason why I don’t like groups in trading. I think trading is like a boxing match. And I like it that way. You don’t need the spectator’s shout of advice. You are the one that’s getting hurt. Shouldn’t you worry about your own ass?

Have the Discipline

Of all things, discipline is probably the most important. It takes the most time to develop. And takes the most effort to practice. When lose control of yourself, you don’t even know. You sometimes don’t know that you are being greedy. Or being afraid. Self discipline makes you aware of those feeling and act accordingly. And most importantly, its the best skill to have if you want to learn a new skill. It is the trait of all successful trader out there.

Discipline is what makes the rich not use their money for parties or fancy cars. Not spend on hookers or drugs. Instead, use the money back into investing. That’s discipline. Focused on a goal. Whatever your goal is.

New to Forex Trading? Start Here!

Welcome to the wonderful world of forex trading. This is the place where all the money of the world goes. The largest market in the world. Larger than all the stock market of the world combined.

What is Forex Trading

Forex Trading is a kind of short term investing in currency or foreign exchange. Hence the name “forex” and trading as oppose to investing, where the goal of buying a currency is to sell it at a higher price in the future to make a profit.

The goal of successful forex trading is to make a profit by buying and selling currencies of other countries e.g. US dollar, Japanese YEN, British POUND and others. You can learn more about forex trading on my post about “Why forex trading is the best business”.

How much money can you earn in Forex Trading?

The market is worth 4 Trillion Dollars. If you become a good trader, even a small slice of that pie can make you a millionaire. The challenge of course is knowing how to trade and how to get started.

How to get started in Forex Trading

1. You need a computer with internet connection. If you are reading this, then you are all set.

2.1 A dollar account at your nearest bank. You need this because you’ll be transferring money to other banks internationally. And the easiest way to do this is to open a dollar account. You can get more info on how to do this in my article.

2.2 No dollar account? Have no fear. You can try social trading and use Paypal to deposit and withdraw your earnings. Though I would recommend the first option more.

3. Forex brokers. Forex trading used to be for “the rich” only. But now, since the advent of the internet, there has been a lot of companies catering to normal people like us, called retail traders. We have list of brokers in this page. Brokers allows you to trade. They are the one who processes your request to buy or sell currencies. Its important to know your brokers well.

4. Your trading capital. You’ll need money to trade.

How much money do I need to start forex trading?

Contrary to popular belief, you don’t need a lot of money trading forex. You can get started in forex trading in any amount you like. I started forex trading with $100 and built it up from there. Some brokers have minimum deposit so you might want to look around, ranging from $100 to $10,000. We have a list of brokers here if you need any recommendations. I personally use these brokers.

But I don’t have money yet. Or am afraid to trade.

That’s ok. Maybe forex trading isn’t for you. And there’s nothing wrong with that. But before you quit just yet, why don’t you try demo trading to test the water. Its free and you’ll not lose money while doing it.

The idea of demo trading is to open a demo account with a broker and deposit it with “play money”. You can trade online in real time but not at risk of losing real money. Its a very good way to learn how to trade. You may open a demo account from our list of brokers.

That’s pretty much it. Its easy to get started in forex trading. I hope this article helps you in getting started in this wonderful, intellectually challenging endeavor. If you like this article, please consider liking us on facebook or sharing this with your friend.

10 Misconceptions About Forex Trading

A lot of people will enter the market with the wrong misconception about the forex. Diving in, nose first without the proper mindset on what they are getting into. I hope this list will clear your mind and hopefully give you a healthy dose of forex trading success.

Forex trading is never easy… What is easy anyway? Picking your nose perhaps?

  1. Forex trading is easy. Many people that want to dive into the world of the foreign exchange market believe that the Forex trading is easy — you just read a book or two and then you will be able to earn daily profits with just 2-3 hours trading daily. Others think that they can buy a profitable strategy and it will make them rich in Forex. In reality that’s just a myth. Succeeding in Forex isn’t easier than mastering any other profession — it takes time, money and a lot of practice.
  2. “I will make money in Forex, if I can trade stocks successfully.” Success in stock market doesn’t imply that you will get success in Forex market — there are many differences between trading stocks and the spot currencies. First of all, Forex market requires a lot of hard work and dedication as this market is open for 24 hours a day. You cannot just sit in front of your computer for the whole day and night, so the best way is that you should find the most suitable time periods for trading. Second, “buy&hold„ strategy simply won’t work in Forex market. Third, you don’t have that much information about currencies as you can get from the companies’ reports and statistics.
  3. “I can make profit whenever I want if Forex market is open 24 hours a day.”Once again, you won’t be sitting in front of your PC for the whole day to be able to trade 24 hours. You’ll have to develop automated trading software to get the advantage of 24 hours a day working schedule.
  4. “I can be a successful Forex trader just following someone else’s signals.” Many beginning traders get burned by the blind signal-following. That’s like putting away the whole responsibility for your actions to someone else. That may sound cool, but in reality you end up with the huge losses. Learn to rely on your own knowledge and skills. Remember that there were no great signal-followers in any financial market.
  5. No commission is to be paid in Forex market. You only have to pay the spread, but you don’t have to pay the commission. And what’s spread? It is the difference between the buy and sell price of the currency pair at the same moment. You may end up with the major part of your profits in the broker’s hands if you plan to rely on the short-term trading.
  6. Forex is a scam. Some skeptics and disappointed traders think that Forex is just some new fad to scam people for their hard earned money. Although there are many scams that are hiding behind the “brand” of Forex, that doesn’t mean that the Forex itself is a scam. There are many institutional Forex brokers, regulated Forex account managers and other solid companies in the market to whom you can trust.
  7. “I need to exactly predict the market outcome to be profitable in Forex.” There is no scientific method to know something in advance in the market with a 100% certainty. There would be no Forex market if you could know the exact currency rates beforehand. Trading is not the game of certainties; it’s a game of odds. One of the first things that new traders learn is to think in the terms of probabilities and risk-to-reward ratios.
  8. “I need to use a very complex strategy to be successful in Forex.” It’s a popular myth, in which many on-line sellers would want you to believe. The main requirement to be successful in Forex is a self-discipline and money management. There are many traders that make consistent profits with rather simple and old strategies.
  9. “I need to have a lot of starting capital to get profit in Forex.” Big capital investment won’t help you in Forex. You don’t need a lot of money to diversify in currencies and you can’t move the currency rates with your trading orders (you’d need billions of dollars to do that). Actually you can trade with a very a little capital, because Forex trading is almost always leveraged with the broker’s money.
  10. Forex is gambling because it’s completely random. Although there is no certainty in Forex (as in any financial market) it doesn’t mean that it’s completely random. And it’s certainly not a gambling, since your success in this market depends mostly on your skills and experience, not on your luck.

What is Forex Trading

Forex trading, in essence, is a market of people buying different currencies of the world and sell them at a particular time to earn money. The spot market or “forex market” is one of the most volatile market in the world averaging of $4 trillion worth of transactions per day. Money is moving up and down by the seconds that is why, many people, businessmen and investors like it, because its always active, always moving and there’s always an opportunity to earn and profit.

Forex trading is not for the weak at heart or those who are not willing to make any risk. Forex trading is a very risky game and you can potentially lose money in just a blink of an eye. With that said, the only way we can minimize risk is to educate ourselves on how to trade in the forex market. Education and experience is the key here. If you’re looking for that “get rich quick” because a friend told you so about forex, you’re looking at the wrong place.

Forex trading, when you login to your forex trader account, you’ll see a bunch of graphs. And it is what comprises of the forex market. These graphs tell stories of how the price of a particular currency pair moved throughout the day, week, hour, months or year. You should be familiar on how to read these graphs. One of the most popular kind of graph is the one invented by the japanese to trade things in the ancient times. They call it the candle sticks. Candle sticks are well known graph in the forex trading industry and we suggest you also read on that for starters.

Forex philippines is not any different. Since we are playing in a global market, we don’t have to worry about the country we are in as we can always buy foreign currencies and earn money. Of course, there are advantages though in buying your own currency paired with another currency. You know the local news and news may affect the forex market. Being in the same country as the currency you are trading will have huge advantage.

Week 24: Avoid the News in Forex Trading

I learned something. This is the thing I learned while learning stock investing. And I think it goes very well with trading in forex. I used to hear a lot of people saying this and I have never really understand the deeper meaning in it. Its about trading when there’s news.

A lot of traders have been saying that to never trade the news. And I have been a victim of greed over the past week. I try to anticipate news releases and have been wrong many times in doing so. I may have been right a couple of times, but results from news doesn’t last long enough to earn substantial profits.

I realized I was chasing something that I won’t be able to reach. And decided to trade only currency pairs that are not in the risk of news. I’ll let the news pass then I’ll return. Because of me, chasing the news, I realized I missed some great opportunities like in the currency pair NZD/USD. I was so caught up with EUR/USD, I missed the trend. It might not actually be a late time to enter but you get my point. Never trade the news. Go to currency pairs where there are no risk of news affecting it. Or in the words of stock investors, invest in obscure companies that are being ignored by professionals and traders.

I made money trading the USD/JPY on its way up. And got back to break even from the losses of EUR/USD hunting for the news. I’m still in good condition and still on my way to realizing my goal.

USD/JPY on Daily

USD/JPY could probably retrace now. Keep in mind though, if you’re going to take the short side, Bank of Japan have expressed their eagerness to intervene should the pair goes further down. Keep your stop losses tight. On a weekly note for this pair, its more of a sign to go long. I’ll try to catch the bottom of the retracement for the daily to enter. That position is less risky because you have BoJ on your side. The only problem now is the USD’s news affecting the currency.

Happy trading.

Why Everybody Should Trade Forex

I’m taking time off forex trading as I notice I have been getting a few consecutive losses in my trades. Time to learn and read some more and reflect why am I so dumb. I came across a great post by someone who is a professional forex trader. The original post is here. I just want to post it here for future reference and inspiration.

There are:
1. no rent of offices (that is, NO dealing with Realtors, Lawyers, and government departments…man, what a pain in the ass). Also no office fit-out costs

2. no staff, (man, unless you have had large numbers of staff depending on YOU for their paypacket each week, you cannot know what a huge pain in the ass it is. They ALL want you to solve their problems)

3. No inventory or stock to buy. No shrinkage (theft of stock) and no “slow moving” items. No massive amount of funds tied up in inventory

4. You can “borrow” as much as you want (by increasing your leverage), WHENEVER you want. (Try running a big business and going to the bank for a short term loan for $10 mill…it will take a month minimum). I am trading $10-12 mill all the time and I get it instantly through the brokers by the use of leverage.

5. If the business becomes a hassle for whatever reason, you can shut it down (that is, close all positions) instantly…and re-open (initiate new positions) whenever YOU want to re-open your “business.”

6. You can “scale” your business to whatever size YOU want simply by increasing/decreasing your positions.

7. Absolutely minimal paperwork. Simply send your 12 month summary Profit and Loss Statement to your Financial Accountant for tax payment purposes.

8. You can trade from anywhere in the world. My wife and I travel most of the year. (take your laptop or PDA or whatever else they will come up with and trade while sipping a nice drink as close by as your local cafe or as far as some open air cafe in some remote little town in beautiful Italy while you watch a bocce match at the park.)

I could keep telling you more of the benefits of this business, but suffice to say…this is the best “business” in the world. I run a multi-multimillion dollar business from my laptop.

And did I mention that it was exciting and fun????

But of course, not everybody can because of certain elements like willingness to learn and take risk. Only few people becomes successful and they control a market of $4 trillion dollar value.