Week 2: Forex Analysis Sept 12 to 16 and a New Toy

The past week has been a very good week. Did we make money? Hell yeah. I got the chance to ride the market movement of more than 800 pips on the EURCHF. And right on the spot, predicted its movement a week prior from the forex analysis week 1 post.


800 pips

My New Toy! iPad 2

That trade, riding its uber tall movement gave me the chance to reward myself with a new toy.

I bought an iPad 2 for myself to reward myself of a job well done. I haven’t got it yet and I’m still waiting for it to be delivered. I will post some pics when it arrive.

I tend to trade well watching tv and I made all the profits while lying in the couch trading in my mobile phone. But mobile trading made my eyes hurt because of very small letters. So I thought I would buy an iPad for a better mobile / flexible trading and at the same time, I can read books without having to clutter my desk with books I already finished reading.

Forex Analysis

EURUSD

It moved quite dramatically downtrend for daily. You may take profits now if you want to be on the safe side for daily trades, because it might pullback to test the resistance. We could see another downtrend for another week. It’s definitely a downtrend on monthly.

Get into downtrend trades. Its a good opportunity to go short.

EURJPY

Its a breakout downtrend on daily. Breakout downtrend on weekly. Still a downtrend on monthly.

Go short trades because its telling a very strong downtrend.

AUDUSD

Downtrend on daily for breaking the strong support at 1.05034. It is a good indication of an incoming downtrend on weekly. Monthly is still unsure. Might be a pullback.

Go SHORT. Its is downtrend for daily and weekly. But be careful holding the position for too long.

EURCHF

Seems like there is a resistance on 1.21822 and it can’t go on further. It might also be a sign for a pullback because the market have moved quite dramatically on daily. On weekly, it is now an uptrend. We are still not sure if it will pullback or not. Just be careful. Monthly is definitely an uptrend.

I would go long for the long term on EURCHF. Since monthly signal is telling us a great uptrend coming. But be careful going long on daily or weekly as we still don’t know if there will be a pullback or not. Enter at your own risk.

USDCHF

There is a breakout on daily. Even if EURCHF is directly proportional with USDCHF, this currency pair instead of pulling back, remained to go strong. There might be a window of opportunity here. Daily is in an uptrend. Weekly is definitely an uptrend. Monthly is uptrend.

I would go for uptrend trades on this currency.

Disclaimer

This trading journal is meant to be for educational purposes only. Please do not take these as trade recommendations and I am not responsible if ever you lose money in the forex market.

Been Traveling – The Benefits of Being a Forex Trader

I’ve been traveling, climbing mountains, tasting different delicacies and meeting women. Right now, I’m trying to live the life that I image for myself. Though, not yet what I really imagine, I can see that I’ll eventually get there.

Traveling costs money. And while you travel, you don’t work. The best thing about being a forex trader is you can earn money just by having an internet connection on your phone. And while I was taking a picture on top of a mountain, I added a position on my trade and my capital now up 38% as we speak.

Oh and I also think the forum is a bad idea. I never thought it would take a lot of time for me to manage the spam. I still haven’t opened the forum for users yet bots and spams are already being submitted. I would remove the forum and the discussion may proceed here in the comments section.

Happy trading.

Week 1: Forex Analysis Sept 5 – 9, 2011

This is my first week after I made a new goal and reached a new milestone in my forex trading. The last forex analysis proved to be a success (for me). And I’ll be doing it again, writing it in this blog, so I can keep track on what strategy I will use for the coming week.

AUD/USD
Daily: Downtrend. There is a very clear reversal pinbar.
Weekly: A possible downtrend. Large pinbar favoring downtrend.
Monthly: Uptrend BUT this could be a pullback now or possible trend reversal.
Comments: Be wary trading for the long term because the weekly and monthly signals are not strong enough to risk big. Make downtrend trades (sell) on daily and be careful holding position for too long.

EUR/USD
Daily: Trending Downtrend. Reversal confirmed. Be careful of signal expressing uptrend.
Weekly: Downtrend. Very strong indication of downtrend forming.
Monthly: Strong indication of downtrend. Resistance at 1.40575, if this break, downtrend will be for the long term.
Comments: Get into downtrend trades. Take downtrend trades.

EUR/JPY
Daily: Downtrending. Lookout for reversal signal.
Weekly: A break on resistance. Downtrend confirmed.
Monthly: Downtrend going to resistance at 105.896. Once there. Be wary. But its all downtrend from here.
Comments: Take downtrend trades. Signal is very strong. Resistance at 105.896

EUR/CHF
Daily: Resistance at 1.12099. Large tail / pin bar signalling trades to take uptrend.
Weekly: Not sure, but downtrend. There’s a large reversal right after the pinbar for uptrend.
Monthly: Downtrend. But a very good signal for uptrend trades.
Comments: Its a very good signal to buy uptrend. But don’t hold the position longer than a week. Weekly is till not clear.

USD/CHF
Daily: Large pinbar telling uptrend. Says pullback is finished.
Weekly: Weekly is not clear as to where it wants to go.
Monthly: It is a good day to buy.
Comments: Like EUR/CHF. This is a good buying opportunity. Just be careful holding it for week-long.

Week 30: Sliding with USDJPY


USD/JPY Weekly

Seems like USD/JPY is forming a pullback from the past week of bull run. Looking for the red lines as support/resistance and targets.

USD/JPY Daily

I’m currently SHORT on USD/JPY and is already 14% up in green. Red lines are strong resistances/support. Could take a couple of more days before we hit our target 80.600.

USD/JPY 4 Hour

Strong support at 82.000. Resistance 82.65 if pulls back.

Comments on other Pairs

I’m currently on the sidelines for the other pairs. My watchlist includes, AUD/CAD, EUR/USD, EUR/CHF. Though, they made a clear price action before, the chart, for me, is not very favorable now and I would prefer to wait until a more clear price action appears. In the meantime, I’ll focus my forex trading on USD/JPY.

+48% Gain From USDJPY

I closed my position on USDJPY with an increase in my war funds of 48%. Right now, I took an opposite position to the SHORT side.

Why did I took an opposite position? I think that 80.70 is a strong resistance. And there’s little risk if we took the short side (betting that the resistance will hold) than remaining on the LONG side (betting that the resistance will break). I think that the resistance is strong and may take a couple of tries before it breaks (or not). I just want to play it safe by betting on which side will most likely give us a greater return. And I think, this time, its on the Short side.

Week 17: Market Going Stale, Investing In Stocks

The forex market is going stale as we reach the end of the year. Many investors are on vacation so the market is not liquid enough to be exciting. +1 in capital for this week.

But, I’ve entertained myself with investing in stocks. Primary strategy is to produce passive income. I’ll be using this nest egg to fund my forex trading account in the future or perhaps venture into real estate. Not sure for now, but the journey thus far have been so exciting. Stock market is not moving fast to date, but I’m investing in it, not trading. There’s a big difference, I like it that way since the stock market is not that liquid like forex, you can’t enter and exit within seconds, there must be a buyer or seller on the other end with the same price you want. In forex, you can enter or exit anytime, very liquid. And liquidity is very very good.

Whole Year Round Up

Well, this year I finally achieved my goal of $5,000 per month in net profit from forex. I am also trading at no risk. Which means, the money that I have in my forex account are the money that I earned trading. I already withdrew the money, initially deposited into my account and thus, trading with no risk at all. In numbers term, I already earned past 100% of my initial capital to trade with only the profits I made. Sweet huh?

This year, I also ventured into stocks and realized that its a lot different than trading forex. So I decided to change my strategy with stocks and focused on passive income generation. In which I am very much enjoying.

I realized that forex trading is a probabilities game. You can not predict what will happen next. A good forex trading system is not a system that could predict the next move of the market, because there is no such thing. A good forex trading system is 60% money management 30% emotional discipline and 10% Entry – Exit. The time I realized this, my trading just improved.

I learned to accept the risk before entering the trade. If $200 loss hurts me emotionally, I turned the risk down to $100 or $50 until I feel no pain from risk. The reward may be small, but small steps before you can run. And it have proven to be profitable.

The best way to trade forex is to trade defensively until the next big trend comes. Don’t be on the sidelines far too long or you can miss the trend. Always be in the market so you can be in the position when the trend starts. You just have to survive the ups and downs of price by money management. And if you caught yourself a big trend, double, triple, quadruple, quintuple up your positions until you are stopped. That’s how you can make money with forex.

I also realized that day trading is stressful. So I switched to swing trading daily. I forgotten my first reason in trading forex. It is to be free. The “illusion” of easy and fast money with day trading is a myth. There is no easy and fast money. The only thing you can find there is stress and a lot of time spent, staring at a computer. That is not the life I want. I want to be free. Maybe once a day looking at a chart for 5 minutes and I’m off to the beach or to the gym. With a lot of free time and let my money work for me, not the other way around. Its a great great feeling.

Week 24: Avoid the News in Forex Trading

I learned something. This is the thing I learned while learning stock investing. And I think it goes very well with trading in forex. I used to hear a lot of people saying this and I have never really understand the deeper meaning in it. Its about trading when there’s news.

A lot of traders have been saying that to never trade the news. And I have been a victim of greed over the past week. I try to anticipate news releases and have been wrong many times in doing so. I may have been right a couple of times, but results from news doesn’t last long enough to earn substantial profits.

I realized I was chasing something that I won’t be able to reach. And decided to trade only currency pairs that are not in the risk of news. I’ll let the news pass then I’ll return. Because of me, chasing the news, I realized I missed some great opportunities like in the currency pair NZD/USD. I was so caught up with EUR/USD, I missed the trend. It might not actually be a late time to enter but you get my point. Never trade the news. Go to currency pairs where there are no risk of news affecting it. Or in the words of stock investors, invest in obscure companies that are being ignored by professionals and traders.

I made money trading the USD/JPY on its way up. And got back to break even from the losses of EUR/USD hunting for the news. I’m still in good condition and still on my way to realizing my goal.

USD/JPY on Daily

USD/JPY could probably retrace now. Keep in mind though, if you’re going to take the short side, Bank of Japan have expressed their eagerness to intervene should the pair goes further down. Keep your stop losses tight. On a weekly note for this pair, its more of a sign to go long. I’ll try to catch the bottom of the retracement for the daily to enter. That position is less risky because you have BoJ on your side. The only problem now is the USD’s news affecting the currency.

Happy trading.

Week 12: Waiting for the Bearish Trend

Last week has been good. Trading forex gave me a positive +10% gain because of the EUR crisis. This week I’m seeing the EUR and other affected currency to be consolidating before really going into the trend. My opinion on the matter is that, EUR and its affected currency will most likely start a bearish trend for the long term. Keeping eye on the news will most likely keep us informed should the trend start. But of course, technical is very important.

Last week I learned to control risk. Though some trades did manage to become a lost, it doesn’t affect me that much now even if its a profit or a loss. I think the fact that thinking of each trade as a probability detach myself from being self denial of the reality that my trade may go against me. It helps to keep an open mind rather than wishing that your trade must go into your direction. Bottom line is, I made profit, 10% return for just risking 1% risk each trade. I can’t be any happier.

Also looking to get into stocks, its never bad to be diversified. Once I get the setup running and my plan tested that is.

Week 8: I Got Stopped Out and Now I Wait

Last week was pretty good. I thought I caught a top, earnings got to +100 pips. But then the price continued its upward trend. Its not a top yet. I got stopped and now I wait for it to finish its trend. I’m looking to go SHORT once there is a clear signal to where the currency is going. As you can see on the screenshot, its almost as if the currency is in the middle. You don’t want to be in that position, its the highest risk possible. You want to be at the top or the bottom to for less risk.

I got stopped for -100 pips. We’re still cool. Its all part of the plan.