Week 11: EUR Crisis

There’s been a EUR crisis and everything is still bearish up to this point. But on Friday, there was a news that affected the currency. It was a bullish news giving immediate financial relief to Greece. But then again, Europe is such a large continent and the next in line with the same financial crisis is Italy. We will see if there are still countries willing to help Italy just like they did for the Greece bailout. I doubt that it would be possible and you can’t help each country at the same time, considering you need a lot of money to do so.

We are still on track and the technicals are still bearish. I’ll try to enter the trade this week.

GBP/CAD Forecast

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There is a forming bullish wedge for the GBP/CAD. Confirmed by the breakout of the resistance cloud. You may take a Long position in this. But because of the Chikou (teal line), the next bars might be consolidating bars and probably trying to test the support before going all out on the bull trend.

I’m personally scared of long shadows of candlesticks especially if they are not on tops or bottoms, and the risk with this one if I should go LONG now, is high. As the next support line is far below marked with the red line. I’ll sit this one out until further confirmation, perhaps a price action signal, but the possibility of this going bullish is high. We just need one final piece of confirmation.

Reversal Signals: Inside Bars

I still have the problem of forex trading by emotion. Eventhough I already decided that I will follow my own trading strategy. My emotions still get the best of me. And because of that, I fail to recognize signals that will lead to profit. Here are some signals that I’ve been waiting all day, yet failed to take them because I’m too focused on trading too much and not waiting for the perfect setup.

Reversal Signal # 1: Inside bar

An inside bar formed after a trend can only signal a reverse of the trend. BUT, if an inside bar was formed and the confirming (next bar) failed, then the trend will continue.

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Reversal Signal # 2: Reversal Bar (Pinbar Reversal Equivalent)

This doesn’t look like the traditional reversal pin bar right? But its actually a reversal pin bar when you look into longer charts. The bars that formed that are almost identical in height signifies that bulls and bears where reversed but 2 bars apart. The confirmation signal should give you a go if you should enter. In which I failed.

I also think that the doji after the confirmation bar makes it even stronger. When it means that the bulls failed to take over the market. Hence, the bears won the trend.

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I’m a little frustrated with today’s trade. I seem to be a little distracted and focused on making money instead of waiting for the setup to present itself.