Short Position on USDCHF

Forex Trading

USDCHF 4 Hour Chart

Howdy! Its been a while since I last made a post here. Sorry for all the people who still read this blog. I’ve been busy with life and other things. But forex trading will always be one of those things that I could not give up. I always check the market, once a day. And only take a position unless I’m very sure that the trade will have a high probability of success. Do I trade as frequently as I used to? No. But I still trade when I think there is a high chance to profit. I think I’m growing into more of an investor in this regard, rather than a trader. Because I don’t want to watch over trades everyday once I made a position.

As I grow as a trader, I realize that respect for the market is more important than any other skill. When I respected the market, I don’t go for trades that are “pwede na” (just about right) to my criteria for entry. It should be exactly as I want it. I guess respect and discipline comes hand in hand.

I made this trade last Feb 5, 2014, Shorting USDCHF. a 4 hour chart using Ichimoku. And its been going along just fine… I still don’t see any warning signs that the trend is going to reverse, so I’m still holding unto it.

Forex Trading on GBP/USD Feb 8

What a good day to do forex trading! I just woke up this morning and quickly checked the forex charts. I know many people will tell you that you should not trade on mondays because a lot of noise going on. But I’m still a new forex trader and just want to learn some experience. Hopefully, the trade I’m gonna show you will be profitable and we learn from each other.

Here is the graph of the chart at GBP/USD pair Feb 8:

GBP/USD Forex Trading Feb 8

I’m expecting a bullish reversal up to later this day but not too much. Probably check it once in a while. I bought 3 lots of it. Why did I chose buy instead of sell? Because there is a fight in the price with is shown by the large pin bar. So I’ll expect it to go up. Not much though but I’ll post the results later tonight.

Update on GBP USD Trade:
Good night guys. I’m about to sleep and just to check my forex trade in the GBPUSD pair. Here is the chart now.

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looking good. Hope to continue the upward movement and so I’ll stay in the current trade. My profit so far is:

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46.3 Pips or $1,389.00 Profit. Looking good indeed!

Update: Feb 9

Morning once again. At this point, I’m at -18.0 pips.picture-12

And a new candle stick is forming. Based from yesterday’s chart, its not much of a difference and I’ll interpret it as something that the buyers and sellers are just equal. There will be a trend forming in the next or so candle stick and I’m expecting it to go up. If not, I’ll just exit the trade if I get below my stop loss of -50 pips.

Update Feb 9 11pm Philippines Time

Decided to close the trade.

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Its a profitable trade with 41.6 pips and $1248.54 profit.

Forex Trading on AUD USD Feb 9

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I spotted this market on AUD/USD pair and made a “short entry”. I believe it will go down because of the momentum of the buying pressure has now (probably ended). I am still not sure. I have nothing to back up this trade but instinct. 😀 I might screw this up but at least its listed here and I can still go back with all the forex trades I made.

Update: Feb 10 10:30 am

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Maybe that is why we shouldn’t put emotions when trading. My trade is now at -23.7 pips. I can still see that its going down now. Might as well be on the trade.

Forex Backtesting

Forex backtesting is the process of going through charts from previous years, weeks or days to confirm the effectivity of a system. Simply put, you look at past charts to know if your system worked well as you predicted or failed. Every new and experienced forex trader do backtesting because it allows the trader to gain knowledge and confidence on his system and make necessary tweaks and rule to find the system that works for them.

Forex Backtesting Software

Most forex companies will let you view at past charts or even download them, where you can mark (using pencil and paper) and trade by looking at one bar at a time (simulating a real trade session).

There are some software that will do this for you. One is forex tester. Well, I think, its the only back testing software out there. Either the forex brokerage company has a feature or not, you can either trade manually or demo trading. Demo trading can be long and tiresome. Using a back testing software, you can instantly test your strategy because you can control the time when each bar will appear.

Conclusion: Whatever method you take, always remember to test your strategy before trading live. Either by backtesting, paper trading or demo trading. You must gain full confidence on your trading system.

Week 4: Sept 26 – 30 Lessen Risk – Welcome Back – I Was Hacked!

Last week has been good forex trading not so good on local markets and stock market though. But that’s a different story. Kind of practiced patience not only in trading but in general as well. You see, last week, this site was hacked. And I thought that was a good opportunity to test patience as I never panicked and just calmed myself that everything is alright. Now looking back at it, it felt pretty good. Friday, I got a chance to enter a trade that I thought was a good time. Its in GBPJPY and USDJPY and I will review them today.

GBPJPY

Its a good buying opportunity. It seems like the trend has ended for GBPJPY but don’t be so sure. Even if it is not the end of the trend, it is still a small risk to take with great rewards. We should expect the price to go up to 50% fib entrancement. If it doesn’t break the high of Thursday, we can call this trade invalid. Nevertheless, I’m in this trade and the risk – reward ratio is good so I’m sticking with it. Weekly is on a downtrend and Monthly has just reach a support. This week will be crucial in ending this month’s price.

USDJPY

Seems to me that it already hit rock bottom. So I’m taking LONG trades from now on. Remember to use stop losses so you can lessen risk.

Week 15: Breaking Even from Previous Week’s Lost then Diversifying

A lot has happen last week. As the market’s volatility rages on because of the Eurozone conferences, most of my trades and stop losses has been hit with a loss. I’m just breaking even right now for the losses from last week.

I’ve been also preparing to “invest” in the stock market. Just to hedge the underlying “riskiness” of forex trading. I say invest and not trade, because I’ll be entering the stock market only for the long term goal and cash flow. The strategy for me investing in the stock market is for a less risky, long term, income generating approach. While my forex trading will be my aggressive side. Never put all your eggs in 1 basket as they say.

Anyone also investing in the stock market? What’s your favorite stock?

Week 9: Looking to Enter This Week

Our patience is paying off. Our prediction is steadily taking its course. We are looking to open a position next week. Hopefully, price will reach the red line, which I assume to be the top. Our stop loss, near that line.

We are still on our plan and still following that plan thus far. Remember: We only need to get 1 big trend to make money. But in order to make the most out of that trend, we must get into the top or the bottom of that trend. Get into the exact turnaround of the trend. So we have the maximum amount of profit possible. We risk as big as we can possibly get once we know that all our setups are right.

Update on Experimental Trade EURUSD

Screen shot 2013-08-21 at 10.38.01 AMEURUSD 1D long position

This is an update from the long position I made a few days ago. The trade is now running at +120 pips profit. The condition is still valid so I’m sticking with the long position. This is an experimental trade and posting this for educational purposes only.

The idea behind the trade is a contrarian position.

Another position I entered using the same strategy last week is this.

Screen shot 2013-08-21 at 10.43.48 AMUSDCHF 4hr short position

The strategy is proving to be profitable with +110 pips already made in this pair. Of course, it needs a little more polishing but I think it is proving to be promising. Its easier to implement as well so when I get started with automated trading.

In total we have +230 pips a very promising experiment! And we are profiting 2 out of 2 trades. That’s 100% accuracy. Of course its too early to tell. But I’m very excited with this new system. Its easy and profitable.