Category Archives: Forex Analysis

Forex Trading and Automated Trading

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I have been doing a lot of research lately. Trying to get my head into automated trading. There are times when I just want to get out of the market because it really takes a toll on your mental health. There are times when you feel you’re invincible and can never be wrong.

This rollercoaster emotion in forex trading is what I want to remove. So I’m doing a research on how to get into automated trading. I mean, the system that I’m using is good as it is. Now let’s see if we can teach a computer to trade for me and thus free me from being tied to the computer.

Why would I want to do automated trading?

Here are some pros that I can think of.

PROS:

  • Computers have no emotions
  • Computers can respond quickly and react quickly to market movement. (also this may depend on your internet connection as well)
  • Given enough technical skill in programming, you can teach a computer how to trade according to your own rules for trading.
  • You can give and share the program to anyone to help them trade.
  • Complete freedom from the market

CONS:

  • Needs technical knowledge in programming
  • Might become unpredictable with unseen bugs and may lose you a lot of money in the process

As you can see, there are more pros than cons that I could think of. And the fact that you’ll be absolutely free from the screen time is a good enough tradeoff for me.

I’ve been reading some books on the subject and it has been interesting so far.

Waiting For More Price Action Before Entering the Forex Trade

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We have some good news and bad news. The bad news is, our analysis did not reach our expected top. And a sudden reversal happened in EURUSD daily. We don’t need to be worried though as it is a retracement testing the support. If support holds, it may continue its upward trend for one last time to hit our top. The good news is, this is not the big trend that we are waiting for and so, we can rest assure that we are not being left by the trend yet.

I’m still waiting for the top to go short. There’s also another option to go long on the bottom.

Week 4: Sept 26 – 30 Lessen Risk – Welcome Back – I Was Hacked!

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Last week has been good forex trading not so good on local markets and stock market though. But that’s a different story. Kind of practiced patience not only in trading but in general as well. You see, last week, this site was hacked. And I thought that was a good opportunity to test patience as I never panicked and just calmed myself that everything is alright. Now looking back at it, it felt pretty good. Friday, I got a chance to enter a trade that I thought was a good time. Its in GBPJPY and USDJPY and I will review them today.

GBPJPY

Its a good buying opportunity. It seems like the trend has ended for GBPJPY but don’t be so sure. Even if it is not the end of the trend, it is still a small risk to take with great rewards. We should expect the price to go up to 50% fib entrancement. If it doesn’t break the high of Thursday, we can call this trade invalid. Nevertheless, I’m in this trade and the risk – reward ratio is good so I’m sticking with it. Weekly is on a downtrend and Monthly has just reach a support. This week will be crucial in ending this month’s price.

USDJPY

Seems to me that it already hit rock bottom. So I’m taking LONG trades from now on. Remember to use stop losses so you can lessen risk.

Week 9: Looking to Enter This Week

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Our patience is paying off. Our prediction is steadily taking its course. We are looking to open a position next week. Hopefully, price will reach the red line, which I assume to be the top. Our stop loss, near that line.

We are still on our plan and still following that plan thus far. Remember: We only need to get 1 big trend to make money. But in order to make the most out of that trend, we must get into the top or the bottom of that trend. Get into the exact turnaround of the trend. So we have the maximum amount of profit possible. We risk as big as we can possibly get once we know that all our setups are right.

Week 13: Consecutive Winning Weeks – Prepare to Make Mistake Now

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It has been my experience in forex trading that after consecutive winning streaks comes the losing part. Its a part of life. Let’s see how I hold up this week as I reach the “unlucky” week 13. Shall I make a mistake and end my winning streak? Or shall I go bankrupt this time, again?

The Eurozone is still the hot topic last week. Made an insane amount of profit from Euro affected currency and correlated pairs. A stunning 13%! The only thing that we should watch out for this week is the retracement. Looking at the chart, it seems like it will retrace sooner or later and just in time for the discussion and plans on easing the problem in the Eurozone. Fundamental and technical are holding each other up on this one and it would be pretty interesting what would happen next week.

This could be a good experience should I make a mistake. 🙂 I’ll be very careful though.

Also, before I forgot, there’s Thanksgiving yesterday and then come weekend. On Monday, it should be a very volatile opening day as the institutional traders will load new trades after getting back from the holiday.

My recommendation: Be careful this week. As all of the Eurozone affected currency might be retracing now.

Week 1: Forex Analysis Sept 5 – 9, 2011

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This is my first week after I made a new goal and reached a new milestone in my forex trading. The last forex analysis proved to be a success (for me). And I’ll be doing it again, writing it in this blog, so I can keep track on what strategy I will use for the coming week.

AUD/USD
Daily: Downtrend. There is a very clear reversal pinbar.
Weekly: A possible downtrend. Large pinbar favoring downtrend.
Monthly: Uptrend BUT this could be a pullback now or possible trend reversal.
Comments: Be wary trading for the long term because the weekly and monthly signals are not strong enough to risk big. Make downtrend trades (sell) on daily and be careful holding position for too long.

EUR/USD
Daily: Trending Downtrend. Reversal confirmed. Be careful of signal expressing uptrend.
Weekly: Downtrend. Very strong indication of downtrend forming.
Monthly: Strong indication of downtrend. Resistance at 1.40575, if this break, downtrend will be for the long term.
Comments: Get into downtrend trades. Take downtrend trades.

EUR/JPY
Daily: Downtrending. Lookout for reversal signal.
Weekly: A break on resistance. Downtrend confirmed.
Monthly: Downtrend going to resistance at 105.896. Once there. Be wary. But its all downtrend from here.
Comments: Take downtrend trades. Signal is very strong. Resistance at 105.896

EUR/CHF
Daily: Resistance at 1.12099. Large tail / pin bar signalling trades to take uptrend.
Weekly: Not sure, but downtrend. There’s a large reversal right after the pinbar for uptrend.
Monthly: Downtrend. But a very good signal for uptrend trades.
Comments: Its a very good signal to buy uptrend. But don’t hold the position longer than a week. Weekly is till not clear.

USD/CHF
Daily: Large pinbar telling uptrend. Says pullback is finished.
Weekly: Weekly is not clear as to where it wants to go.
Monthly: It is a good day to buy.
Comments: Like EUR/CHF. This is a good buying opportunity. Just be careful holding it for week-long.

Week 32: +20% This Week Great EUR/USD Trade

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The main highlight of last week is the trade for EURUSD and capital is now up 20%. Looking at the charts, I think there is something cooking for EUR/CHF.

Remember our analysis on the EUR/CHF that its cooking to go up? Well, it did went up but it seems that many are still shorting the pair. The interesting thing here is that the Swiss government expressed their willingness to intervene should the pair reach around 1.2000. This is last year’s tipping point where exporters are expressing their grief for high exchange rates and businesses are being affected.

Now that the pair is hovering at this level ~1.2000. It might be a great idea to go long and build up the position as you go.

The price action tells the same story, “I want to go up!”.

Keep in mind that before a trend reverses, there might be a consolidation… This move up that we are anticipating, may be preceded by consolidation first before it moves up, or it might continue to go down some more before it moves up. Keep your stop losses tight and be flexible enough to know if you are wrong. I have been wrong a couple of times, so same thing goes here… Trade at your own risk. 🙂

Been Traveling – The Benefits of Being a Forex Trader

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I’ve been traveling, climbing mountains, tasting different delicacies and meeting women. Right now, I’m trying to live the life that I image for myself. Though, not yet what I really imagine, I can see that I’ll eventually get there.

Traveling costs money. And while you travel, you don’t work. The best thing about being a forex trader is you can earn money just by having an internet connection on your phone. And while I was taking a picture on top of a mountain, I added a position on my trade and my capital now up 38% as we speak.

Oh and I also think the forum is a bad idea. I never thought it would take a lot of time for me to manage the spam. I still haven’t opened the forum for users yet bots and spams are already being submitted. I would remove the forum and the discussion may proceed here in the comments section.

Happy trading.

Week 2: Forex Analysis Sept 12 to 16 and a New Toy

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The past week has been a very good week. Did we make money? Hell yeah. I got the chance to ride the market movement of more than 800 pips on the EURCHF. And right on the spot, predicted its movement a week prior from the forex analysis week 1 post.


800 pips

My New Toy! iPad 2

That trade, riding its uber tall movement gave me the chance to reward myself with a new toy.

I bought an iPad 2 for myself to reward myself of a job well done. I haven’t got it yet and I’m still waiting for it to be delivered. I will post some pics when it arrive.

I tend to trade well watching tv and I made all the profits while lying in the couch trading in my mobile phone. But mobile trading made my eyes hurt because of very small letters. So I thought I would buy an iPad for a better mobile / flexible trading and at the same time, I can read books without having to clutter my desk with books I already finished reading.

Forex Analysis

EURUSD

It moved quite dramatically downtrend for daily. You may take profits now if you want to be on the safe side for daily trades, because it might pullback to test the resistance. We could see another downtrend for another week. It’s definitely a downtrend on monthly.

Get into downtrend trades. Its a good opportunity to go short.

EURJPY

Its a breakout downtrend on daily. Breakout downtrend on weekly. Still a downtrend on monthly.

Go short trades because its telling a very strong downtrend.

AUDUSD

Downtrend on daily for breaking the strong support at 1.05034. It is a good indication of an incoming downtrend on weekly. Monthly is still unsure. Might be a pullback.

Go SHORT. Its is downtrend for daily and weekly. But be careful holding the position for too long.

EURCHF

Seems like there is a resistance on 1.21822 and it can’t go on further. It might also be a sign for a pullback because the market have moved quite dramatically on daily. On weekly, it is now an uptrend. We are still not sure if it will pullback or not. Just be careful. Monthly is definitely an uptrend.

I would go long for the long term on EURCHF. Since monthly signal is telling us a great uptrend coming. But be careful going long on daily or weekly as we still don’t know if there will be a pullback or not. Enter at your own risk.

USDCHF

There is a breakout on daily. Even if EURCHF is directly proportional with USDCHF, this currency pair instead of pulling back, remained to go strong. There might be a window of opportunity here. Daily is in an uptrend. Weekly is definitely an uptrend. Monthly is uptrend.

I would go for uptrend trades on this currency.

Disclaimer

This trading journal is meant to be for educational purposes only. Please do not take these as trade recommendations and I am not responsible if ever you lose money in the forex market.