The main highlight of last week is the trade for EURUSD and capital is now up 20%. Looking at the charts, I think there is something cooking for EUR/CHF.
Remember our analysis on the EUR/CHF that its cooking to go up? Well, it did went up but it seems that many are still shorting the pair. The interesting thing here is that the Swiss government expressed their willingness to intervene should the pair reach around 1.2000. This is last year’s tipping point where exporters are expressing their grief for high exchange rates and businesses are being affected.
Now that the pair is hovering at this level ~1.2000. It might be a great idea to go long and build up the position as you go.
The price action tells the same story, “I want to go up!”.
Keep in mind that before a trend reverses, there might be a consolidation… This move up that we are anticipating, may be preceded by consolidation first before it moves up, or it might continue to go down some more before it moves up. Keep your stop losses tight and be flexible enough to know if you are wrong. I have been wrong a couple of times, so same thing goes here… Trade at your own risk. 🙂
This is done in the daily charts. I saw bar A which is a nice inside bar. But the bars next to to Bar A is a trading range. So I wait for a bullish bar to enter.
Bar B is a doji which means bears and bulls are almost equal. But have a potential as a signal to indicate a bullish trend. So I try and wait if the next bar is bull to enter the trade. It proved to be a bull and closed just above the inside bar’s range. So I entered long depicted in the arrow.
As of now, its +63 pips.
This is was my last trade on USDJPY. I managed to close the trade with 68% profit before the sudden reversal a few hours before the close.
I think that this following week, we’ll see a retrace on the pair. If it doesn’t make a new high then the trend will continue to go bearish. If it does make and close into a new high. I’ll change my view on the pair as bullish.
Forex Backtesting lesson is now out on our forex trading course. Check it out!
Happy weekend you guys.
I just realized that I really suck at writing. It is hard work for me to write the forex trading courses. I wish I could have made it more enjoyable. That is why I’m ordering some books right now about writing. I really want to share the love of forex trading and I think that my inability to express that love into writing would only limit my reach to more people.
Actually, I’m buying books because a girl rejected me. This fine woman, a manager from a popular coffee chain, I dated for a while just called it quits. She doesn’t know I have a blog so I guess that’s ok venting it out here. I’m buying books so I can forget about the whole thing. I feel devastated…
On the other hand, there seems to be a lot of insurance salesmen. A guy already phoned me selling insurance. He might have thought that I will commit suicide after being heart broken.
This post is not related in anyway with forex trading. But a screenshot of my trade looks just fine. It looks like a blood dripping right? Kinda explain how I feel.
EURUSD 8 Hour Chart
All the odds were in our favor. At the beginning of the week, we anticipated a breakout actually, its 2 weeks before. And correct we are on that call and if you went in the short trade with me, you could have made more than 300+ pips.
Right now, we are looking for a clearer price action.
This is my first week after I made a new goal and reached a new milestone in my forex trading. The last forex analysis proved to be a success (for me). And I’ll be doing it again, writing it in this blog, so I can keep track on what strategy I will use for the coming week.
Daily: Downtrend. There is a very clear reversal pinbar.
Weekly: A possible downtrend. Large pinbar favoring downtrend.
Monthly: Uptrend BUT this could be a pullback now or possible trend reversal.
Comments: Be wary trading for the long term because the weekly and monthly signals are not strong enough to risk big. Make downtrend trades (sell) on daily and be careful holding position for too long.
Daily: Trending Downtrend. Reversal confirmed. Be careful of signal expressing uptrend.
Weekly: Downtrend. Very strong indication of downtrend forming.
Monthly: Strong indication of downtrend. Resistance at 1.40575, if this break, downtrend will be for the long term.
Comments: Get into downtrend trades. Take downtrend trades.
Daily: Downtrending. Lookout for reversal signal.
Weekly: A break on resistance. Downtrend confirmed.
Monthly: Downtrend going to resistance at 105.896. Once there. Be wary. But its all downtrend from here.
Comments: Take downtrend trades. Signal is very strong. Resistance at 105.896
Daily: Resistance at 1.12099. Large tail / pin bar signalling trades to take uptrend.
Weekly: Not sure, but downtrend. There’s a large reversal right after the pinbar for uptrend.
Monthly: Downtrend. But a very good signal for uptrend trades.
Comments: Its a very good signal to buy uptrend. But don’t hold the position longer than a week. Weekly is till not clear.
Daily: Large pinbar telling uptrend. Says pullback is finished.
Weekly: Weekly is not clear as to where it wants to go.
Monthly: It is a good day to buy.
Comments: Like EUR/CHF. This is a good buying opportunity. Just be careful holding it for week-long.
Entering a trade inside a kumo, betting that the cloud won’t break. This is what I think while I opened the trade in EURUSD. It has proven to be an effective strategy. As you know, a flat line in a kumo cloud means a strong resistance. While I also drew my own resistance lines, Ichimoku confirmed that it indeed has a high probability that it will not break. So I bet more. The resistance at 1.3500 is a dead giveaway for me. Look at the candlesticks lining up in a straight line. 🙂 That’s another opportunity to add more position from the profit I had on the first to trades near 1.33 and 1.32.
Total pips gained so far +1,687
Today is a great day for me. Today marks the day where I completely eliminated all the losses that I have incurred while learning about forex.
When I started a year ago, I tried to trade forex live. After practicing for a couple of months, demo trading, I gather up all the courage I could get and opened my first live account. During the course of the year, I accumulated a total of -$5,000. Yes… Negative… And today, I completely finally took back all the losses.
I am up +$1,063 starting today. I hope this is the beginning of a wonderful trading life. And hopefully achieve my forex trading goal.
After all that grueling experience. I would like to share to you a little knowledge I picked up while stumbling across the trading realm. There are only 3 important factors to be successful at trading.
2. Money Management
Notice that there are no trading strategy here or indicators. Not even entry strategy. It is because those 3 factors are what determines a successful trade. Because of them, my trade has been really good so far.
Yeah I have reached my first goal after 2 years with a deadline that’s suppose to be 1 year. I’ve been thinking of making this goal on the basis on how much money was made. I realized that its not important how much money you make in this business. Because what attracted me to forex trading is the risk and the intellectual challenge of trading.
Maybe its time for me to add another goal. Sort of like how Benjamin Franklin acquired the different traits he wants to have. Practicing each trait like, discipline and patience, not succumbing to fear and greed, are what I would really like to master more than earning a lot of money in forex.
The only problem is how…
Well, the long down trend that started last year gave us a decent profits on the way down to the last four trades that was written in my previous post. The whole euro crisis did give us some handsome profits. And the question comes to mind… Is it over? Or is it a temporary retracement?
If you ask me, I don’t know… I have long turned my back to predicting the market. And now focused my energy into betting into sure trends. Like the previous euro down trend. My hunch is, the euro crisis is not over. And I’m guessing this is just a short term retracement. What we need to watch out for is its continuation on the down side. But it might take a few more weeks before it shows a good enough sign.
1.3100 is a very strong resistance. Let’s see if it holds.
Meanwhile, I was reading a lot of books and there’s a particular book that got my attention. Its “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator“. There’s a lot of wisdom in this book that every trader should know. The story is very interesting as well, because its based on a true story for the most part.